“The Southwest will certainly remain a region of concern as we anticipate below-normal precipitation where drought conditions continue in most areas. Region 16: Pacific Southwest Winter will be warmer and wetter than normal, with above-normal mountain snows. The snowiest period will be in mid-November. The coldest periods will be in mid-November and early and late December. while much of the South experiences above-normal temperatures,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with slightly below-normal precipitation and snowfall. “Consistent with typical La Nina conditions during winter months, we anticipate below-normal temperatures along portions of the northern tier of the U.S. Snow will still have the chance to develop under the right circumstances. The warmer-than-average temperatures hint that we could see more icy or rain events in Southwest Virginia this winter. However, equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation is expected in Virginia during the winter months. Overall, this outlook spells out warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the Commonwealth this winter. (Image: Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) In NOAA’s 2021 Winter Outlook which extends from December 2021 through February 2022 wetter-than-average conditions are anticipated across portions of the Northern U.S., primarily in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and western Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions are favored in the Southwest and the Southeast. Precipitation Outlook map shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. (Image: Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Below-average temperatures are favored for the Pacific Northwest. The coldest temperatures will occur in mid-November, mid-January, and early. and the East Coast will likely notice warmer-than-average temperatures this winter. Winter will be warmer and wetter than normal, with above-normal mountain snows. The “neutral” state is where we’ve been since the last La Niña ended.La Niña conditions develop: What does it mean for Virginia this winter?Īccording to NOAA’s outlook, the southern tier of the U.S. La Niña (the cool phase) and its counterpart, El Niño (the warm phase), alternate in warming and cooling large areas of the tropical ocean about every two to seven years on average. Correspondingly, the outlooks for JFM and FMA 2023 are also colder across the Northern Great Plains. The ENSO pattern can be in one of three states: El Niño, Neutral, or La Niña. 2022-2023 now slightly favors below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, reflecting current guidance and a bit more certainty in the La Nia continuing through early portions of 2023. The Inland Northwest has a 50 chance of a colder winter, a 25 chance of near-average winter temperatures, and. “The forecaster consensus anticipates La Niña to persist longer, potentially returning to ENSO-neutral during April-June 2022,” NOAA said in its outlook.įor those unfamiliar with those terms, La Niña is the other part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural climate pattern defined by opposing warm and cool phases of oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific. NOAA 2021-22 winter outlook, chances for wet/dry and warm/cold season. La Niña conditions, which emerged in October, have a 90% chance of persisting through the winter months, and a 50% chance of continuing through spring. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.Ī La Niña winter may turn into a La Niña spring, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said in its official winter outlook Thursday. This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated.
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